New Delhi [India], October 23 (ANI): Deloitte India has raised its GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2025–26 by 30 basis points to 6.8 percent, highlighting the country’s continued economic resilience.
India entered FY 2025–26 on a strong note, posting a remarkable 7.8 percent GDP growth in the April–June quarter—well above market expectations. Deloitte India now projects GDP growth to range between 6.7 and 6.9 percent, averaging 6.8 percent this fiscal year, up by 0.3 percentage points from its previous estimate.
“This performance signals not just resilience but a renewed sense of India emerging stronger than most nations. Similar growth rates are expected in the subsequent year, but the range of variation remains broader due to uncertainties associated with trade and investment,” Deloitte India said in a statement Thursday.
According to Deloitte, growth is likely to be supported by buoyant domestic demand, accommodative monetary policy, and structural reforms such as GST 2.0. Low inflation is also expected to boost spending as purchasing power improves.
A strong rural consumer confidence index (above 100) indicates optimism in rural demand, while improved crop output is expected to support farm incomes in the coming months.
“Demand during the festive quarter will likely be fueled by a notable rise in consumption spending. This is expected to be followed by strong private investment, as businesses respond to uncertainties and prepare to meet elevated demand. There is also anticipation that India will strike a deal with the US and the EU by the end of the year, which could elevate overall investment sentiment. Strong growth in the first and third quarters is likely to drive overall annual growth,” said Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India.
However, Deloitte cautioned that growth in the current fiscal remains vulnerable to global headwinds. Escalating trade uncertainties and India’s potential inability to secure a trade deal with the United States could weigh on economic performance. Heightened global trade tensions may trigger a rapid decline in exports, while geopolitical supply chain disruptions could increase costs and hamper production.
Deloitte also warned that restricted access to critical minerals and rising inflation in the West might lead to higher inflationary pressures in India.
“India is no island, and global risks will inevitably weigh on its economic outlook. While years of policy efforts have helped bring down headline inflation—largely due to easing food and fuel prices—core inflation remains stubbornly high, consistently above 4% since February. This persistent price pressure could constrain the Reserve Bank of India’s ability to pursue further rate cuts,” Majumdar added.
She further noted that if the US Federal Reserve maintains elevated policy rates for an extended period, it could tighten global liquidity conditions and limit the RBI’s monetary flexibility. Such a scenario could also accelerate capital outflows from emerging markets like India—a trend already visible in recent months.
Official data shows that India’s real GDP grew by 7.8 percent in the April–June quarter of FY 2025–26, up from 6.5 percent in the same quarter of the previous fiscal. Nominal GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.8 percent during the same period.
In the Economic Survey 2024–25, tabled in Parliament on January 31, the government projected real GDP growth for 2025–26 to be between 6.3 and 6.8 percent, a range that remains unchanged.
India’s economy grew by 6.5 percent in FY 2024–25 and by a strong 9.2 percent in 2023–24, maintaining its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. In the preceding years, GDP growth stood at 8.7 percent in 2021–22 and 7.2 percent in 2022–23. (ANI)
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