New Delhi [India], November 16 (ANI): India’s consumption landscape is poised for a major transformation, with the country’s retail market projected to hit USD 1 trillion by 2030. This growth is expected to be fuelled by rising disposable incomes, rapid digital adoption, and an expanding aspirational consumer base, according to a new report by venture capital firm Fireside Ventures.
The report emphasizes that the shift underway is not only about scale but represents a fundamental restructuring of how Indian consumers shop. General trade, which made up more than 90 percent of the retail market in 2014, is projected to contract to around 70 percent by 2030. This decline comes as modern trade, e-commerce, quick commerce, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands continue to gain significant traction.
Fireside Ventures notes that D2C platforms and quick commerce could together account for up to 5 percent of the retail market within the decade. At the same time, branded retail is expected to double in size, nearing USD 730 billion—almost half of India’s overall retail sector. Digital-native and new-age brands are expanding two to three times faster than traditional companies, propelled by data-driven innovation, flexible distribution models, and more targeted consumer engagement.
The report also offers a detailed mapping of emerging consumer cohorts, underscoring the vast opportunities available to investors. It highlights segments such as “India I,” the top 15 percent of the population that contributes 35 percent of retail spending and 60 percent of branded purchases, and “Bharat,” the remaining 85 percent that is rapidly digitising, eager to explore new brands, and increasingly open to modern retail formats.
By 2030, India is expected to have 1.1 billion internet users and more than 400 million online shoppers—creating what Fireside describes as the most equitable consumption landscape the country has ever seen.
According to the firm, the next wave of iconic consumer brands will be built by founders who are redefining the rules—creating niche, culturally grounded, digitally savvy labels tailored to an increasingly experimental and proudly regional Indian consumer.
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