Hong Kong, December 2 (ANI): China is rapidly expanding its nuclear-warhead arsenal at a historic pace, marking what analysts describe as the fastest nuclear weapons buildup in human history. Despite growing global concern, Beijing has offered little clarity on the motivations behind its expansion—until now.
A Pentagon report released in late 2023 estimated that China possessed 500 operational nuclear warheads, increasing to more than 600 by late 2024. Projections suggest the figure could reach 1,000 by 2030.
Beijing attempted to outline its nuclear posture in a new white paper titled “China’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era,” released on November 27. The publication, issued 20 years after China’s last major arms control document, provides limited insight and leaves numerous questions unanswered.
One line in the white paper claims that nuclear modernization is intended “to safeguard China’s own strategic security and overall global strategic stability.” The implication is that a larger Chinese nuclear arsenal makes both China and the world safer.
Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at Carnegie China’s Nuclear Policy Program, noted that China is now more openly framing its military expansion as a means of strengthening global stability through a more capable Chinese nuclear force.
At China’s September 3 military parade in Beijing, nuclear-capable missiles were prominently displayed, including the DF-61, DF-5C, and DF-31BJ intercontinental ballistic missiles, along with JL-1 air-launched nuclear missiles and JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, said the white paper largely repeats long-standing Chinese talking points. While he acknowledged the document contains new insights into China’s view of its nuclear policy, he also pointed out its heavy reliance on propaganda and selective narratives.
China portrays itself as a peace-loving nation that opposes the abuse of power—claims contradicted by its aggressive actions in the South China Sea and its rejection of international rulings against its territorial claims. The white paper frequently points fingers at the United States, accusing Washington of fueling military tensions and undermining regional security.
China criticized the US for expanding alliances, deploying intermediate-range missiles, and increasing deterrence measures in the Indo-Pacific. However, analysts note that China’s own missile arsenal—estimated to include around 500 DF-26 and DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missiles—is expanding at a much faster and larger scale.
Despite Beijing’s condemnation of US treaty withdrawals, the white paper ignores that Russia violated several arms control agreements and that China has refused to participate in arms control negotiations. Morris and other experts argue that China severely underestimates the risk of escalating into a nuclear arms race.
The white paper warns that China will not consider arms control agreements until the US abandons its “aggressive nuclear deterrent policy” and stops actions China deems confrontational.
Although China’s nuclear stockpile remains smaller than those of the US and Russia, the country insists that nuclear powers with larger arsenals should lead global disarmament. Analysts argue that such appeals ring hollow, as no nuclear states—including China—appear willing to relinquish their arsenals.
China also asserts that it complies with all international treaties and supports the United Nations’ role in global governance. Yet its simultaneous expansion of nuclear capabilities raises doubts about the sincerity of these commitments.
A key element of the white paper is China’s reaffirmation of its no-first-use nuclear policy. Jeffrey Lewis, Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College, said the new document offers an unusually strong endorsement of this stance. China pledges never to use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances or to threaten non-nuclear states.
Zhao emphasized that China relies heavily on its no-first-use policy and is confident in its conventional military superiority, which reduces any need to shift its nuclear doctrine.
However, China continues to improve its early-warning systems, missile penetration capabilities, rapid-response measures, and overall survivability—actions more consistent with a major nuclear modernization program than with disarmament.
Beijing also criticizes other nations’ defense initiatives, including the AUKUS submarine pact between Australia, the UK, and the US, arguing it undermines the Non-Proliferation Treaty. China, however, remains silent on North Korea’s nuclear submarine ambitions, which are raising tensions in Northeast Asia.
The white paper concludes by claiming that China is “on the right side of history” and a force for world peace. Analysts, including Morris, argue that these assertions are contradicted by China’s unprecedented nuclear expansion and lack of transparency.
“The inescapable fact,” Morris said, “is that China is embarking on the largest nuclear weapons breakout in peacetime history, with no transparency. This completely undermines its ‘principled stance’ on nuclear arms control.”
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