Taipei [Taiwan], October 15 (ANI): China’s rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear capabilities have raised concerns that Beijing might use “nuclear blackmail” or even engage in nuclear conflict with Western nations if they intervene in a Taiwan dispute, echoing strategies observed from the Kremlin during the Ukraine invasion, according to Central News Agency (CNA).
During the military parade on September 3 in Tiananmen Square, China showcased three missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads: the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, and the DF-61 surface-to-surface intercontinental missile. Analysts describe this display as evidence of a potential Chinese “nuclear triad,” enabling launches via air, land, and sea—a capability China previously lacked for airborne nuclear strikes, CNA reported.
Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at MIT’s Security Studies Program, noted that China’s advanced tactical nuclear weapons, such as the DF-26, provide “more credible” deterrence compared to strategic weapons, which the US might view as only usable in retaliation to a US tactical nuclear strike. “This not only reduces US escalation dominance in overall capabilities but also equips [China] with more realistic options to respond proportionately against potential US use of tactical nuclear arms,” Heginbotham stated.
Previously, China’s nuclear response options were largely strategic, meaning any retaliation against the US would have been effectively “suicidal” due to the expected devastating counterattack. “All of this enhances China’s capacity to engage in conventional warfare ‘safely,’ with diminished fear of a US nuclear retaliation towards Taiwan,” Heginbotham added.
Yang Tai-yuan, chairman of the Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation, warned that these developments could make the US less willing to deploy forces in Taiwan’s defense during a Chinese invasion. “The Chinese Communist Party may have drawn lessons on nuclear intimidation from Russia during the Ukraine conflict and could threaten to deploy tactical nuclear weapons against major powers that get involved in its regional disputes, including those in the Taiwan Strait,” Yang said, as reported by CNA.
He added that if the US were to send troops to support Taiwan, China might leverage its tactical nuclear arsenal to intimidate American forces in the western Pacific. “The US would probably take such threats seriously and assess its choices between deploying troops to the Taiwan Strait or limiting its reaction to diplomatic actions, such as showing support via the United Nations, to prevent direct conflict,” Yang noted. (ANI)
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