Belem [Brazil], November 15 (ANI): China’s tightening control over critical minerals has become one of the most discussed issues at COP30 in Belem, with leading strategic affairs expert Jagannath Panda warning that the world’s clean-energy transition cannot remain dependent on resources controlled “overwhelmingly by a single authoritarian state.”
In an analysis published in Turkiye Today following his visit to the summit as an observer, Panda argued that rare earths, lithium, copper and other minerals vital for renewable technologies have evolved into “political instruments embedded in the strategic ambitions of the Communist Party of China (CPC).” He noted that China accounts for nearly 60 per cent of global rare earth production and about 90 per cent of refining capacity—giving Beijing the ability to “shape, indeed to weaponise, the pace and direction of global decarbonisation.”
According to Panda, China’s dominance is not the natural outcome of market forces but the result of a long-term CPC strategy to secure mining zones, monopolise processing, expand infrastructure and use export controls to pressure competitors. “These concerns permeate negotiation rooms, civil society events and expert panels across COP30,” he wrote.
Panda identified the Tibetan Plateau as a core extraction frontier for Beijing, citing significant lithium, copper, uranium and heavy rare earth reserves. A delegation led by Panda, Head of SCSA-IPA, and joined by Senior Associate Fellow Richard Ghiasy, travelled to Brazil during COP30 before holding high-level meetings in Rio de Janeiro.
As part of their project, Whither Tibet in Climate Crisis Agenda, the delegation emphasised that the Tibetan Plateau—known as the world’s “Third Pole”—is warming nearly three times faster than the global average. Despite its crucial environmental role, the region remains vastly underrepresented in global climate discussions, even as it experiences rapid glacial melt, permafrost loss and destabilising river systems that impact nearly 2 billion people across South and Southeast Asia.
Panda noted that large-scale mineral extraction projects, including the Qulong copper mine and the Zabuye lithium lake, are integrated with extensive rail, hydropower and logistics networks. These serve “dual purposes: accelerating mineral extraction and advancing Beijing’s political and military consolidation of the plateau.” He warned that the ecological consequences are “severe,” citing glacier depletion, soil erosion, polluted rivers and threats to food and water security across Asia.
Debate on China’s mineral dominance intensified this month after Beijing expanded its rare earth export restrictions. Five more rare-earth metals were added to controls first announced in April, meaning almost all 17 recognised rare-earth elements now fall under stricter oversight. Dozens of refining technologies have also been added to China’s restricted list, and exporters must now seek approval for products containing even 0.1 per cent of certain Chinese-sourced minerals.
China has additionally barred the export of materials used in defence systems and imposed case-by-case clearance for equipment related to semiconductors and artificial intelligence. Panda argued that these measures create “a new layer of structural power,” granting Beijing sweeping leverage over clean-tech supply chains and even military-related inputs.
In his analysis, he wrote that global climate goals are increasingly vulnerable to China’s “opaque, concentrated and politically leveraged” mineral networks. Delegates in Belem, he said, broadly agree that the world’s green transition cannot remain tied to supply chains that Beijing can tighten or restrict at will.
“The contradiction is stark,” Panda concluded. “Global climate goals increasingly rely on minerals extracted from a region suffering profound ecological stress.” (ANI)
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