New Delhi [India], December 29 (ANI): Crude oil markets are expected to remain under sustained pressure in 2026 as chronic oversupply, rising inventories, and modest demand growth outweigh geopolitical risks, analysts said. Despite OPEC+ efforts to defend price floors, global oil prices are likely to stay range-bound with a bearish undertone.
Vandana Bharti, AVP of Commodities Research at SMC Global Securities, noted that “global production growth will continue to outpace modest demand gains, potentially leading to a surplus of 2 to 4 million barrels per day.” She highlighted that rising output from non-OPEC+ producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, combined with subdued demand due to transportation electrification, shifting trade policies, and cooling manufacturing activity, is creating structural oversupply.
Global stockpiles reached four-year highs in late 2025 and are forecast to build by another 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026, adding further downward pressure on prices. Although OPEC+ has paused additional output hikes, its influence over market pricing is diminishing, Bharti said.
Prathamesh Mallya, Deputy Vice President at Angel One, pointed out that accelerating electric vehicle adoption, especially in key markets like China, is eroding fuel demand, while gains in developing countries are insufficient to absorb the supply surge. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects global liquid fuel production to rise by about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, exceeding expected demand growth of around 1.1 million barrels per day.
Ravinder Kumar of SMC Global Securities added that the global crude market is shifting toward oversupply, with the International Energy Agency predicting a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day—the largest since the early 2010s. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and potential restrictions on Russia, may trigger temporary price spikes, but structural imbalances are likely to dominate the market.
Analysts project Brent crude to average in the mid-USD 50s to low-USD 60s per barrel, with WTI expected to trade in the USD 50-65 per barrel range. On India’s MCX, crude futures are expected to fluctuate between Rs 3,500 and Rs 6,500 per barrel, with short-term rallies likely to be met with aggressive selling.
India imported approximately 300 million metric tonnes of crude and petroleum products in 2024-25, fulfilling about 88% of its requirements through imports, highlighting the country’s continued exposure to global oil price fluctuations.
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