New Delhi [India], November 2 (ANI): India’s exports to the United States slid across sectors for the fourth consecutive month, recording a 37.5 percent decline between May and September 2025, according to an analysis by India-based trade think tank, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
India’s exports to its largest market have been hit hard by steep US tariff hikes. Between May and September 2025, exports fell from USD 8.8 billion to USD 5.5 billion, marking one of the sharpest short-term declines in years, GTRI said in a note on Sunday.
The analysis compared export performance between May and September 2025 to assess the immediate fallout of US tariffs imposed from April 2. These duties started at 10 percent, rose to 25 percent on August 7, and reached 50 percent by late August for India.
Tariff-free products, which account for nearly one-third of India’s total shipments, saw the steepest contraction—falling 47 percent from USD 3.4 billion in May to USD 1.8 billion in September, the report said. “Smartphones and pharmaceuticals were the biggest casualties,” GTRI noted.
Smartphone exports, which had surged 197 percent between April-September 2024 and the same period in 2025, plunged 58 percent from USD 2.29 billion in May to USD 884.6 million in September. Shipments declined consistently—USD 2.0 billion in June, USD 1.52 billion in July, USD 964.8 million in August, and USD 884.6 million in September. “The reasons for the decline are not known and need examination,” GTRI stated.
Pharmaceutical exports dropped 15.7 percent, from USD 745.6 million to USD 628.3 million. Industrial metals and auto parts—subject to uniform tariffs for all countries—registered a milder 16.7 percent fall, from USD 0.6 billion to USD 0.5 billion. Aluminium exports decreased 37 percent, copper 25 percent, auto parts 12 percent, and iron and steel 8 percent.
“Because all global suppliers faced similar duties, the dip appears linked more to a slowdown in US industrial activity than to any loss in Indian competitiveness,” the report explained.
Labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewelry, chemicals, agricultural products, and machinery—accounting for nearly 60 percent of India’s US exports—suffered a 33 percent decline, from USD 4.8 billion in May to USD 3.2 billion in September. Gems and jewelry exports plunged 59.5 percent, from USD 500.2 million to USD 202.8 million, hurting units in Surat and Mumbai as Thailand and Vietnam captured lost US orders.
Exports of solar panels fell 60.8 percent, from USD 202.6 million to USD 79.4 million, eroding India’s renewable energy export advantage. “With China facing only 30 percent tariffs and Vietnam 20 percent, India’s competitiveness has sharply deteriorated,” GTRI said.
Chemical, marine, seafood, textile, and processed food exports also declined, the analysis found.
“Exporters are urging the government to respond swiftly. Priority measures include enhanced interest-equalization support to lower financing costs, faster duty remission to ease liquidity pressure, and emergency credit lines for MSME exporters,” GTRI suggested.
Without urgent intervention, the report warned, India risks losing market share to Vietnam, Mexico, and China—even in sectors where it previously held a strong position. “The latest data make one point clear: tariffs have not only squeezed India’s trade margins but also exposed structural vulnerabilities across key export industries,” GTRI concluded. (ANI)
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