New Delhi [India], February 3 (ANI): A recent Lancet Global Health study warning that sharp reductions in global development assistance could reverse health gains and lead to millions of additional deaths worldwide has sparked discussion among Indian health experts. They maintain that while India may need to restructure certain programs, the overall health of its citizens will not be adversely affected.
The study, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, estimates that cuts in official development assistance (ODA) could result in 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030 across 93 countries, including India and 20 others in Asia. The analysis found that global aid between 2002 and 2021 helped reduce child mortality by 39 percent, HIV/AIDS deaths by 70 percent, and deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies by 56 percent.
Explaining the implications for India, Dr. Rajeev Jayadevan, former President of the Indian Medical Association (IMA) Cochin and convener of its Research Cell, said the study focuses on declining foreign aid to underdeveloped and developing nations. He noted that the findings are projections rather than results of randomized studies and emphasized that India’s position differs significantly from countries that are heavily dependent on foreign aid.
Dr. Jayadevan pointed out that several sub-Saharan and smaller nations face conflicts, war, starvation, epidemics, sanitation challenges, and poverty, making them far more reliant on external assistance. In contrast, India’s annual healthcare spending is approximately USD 120 billion, with foreign aid accounting for less than one percent of that amount.
He said that while a reduction in foreign funding may require restructuring, it does not mean that critical programs will collapse. Foreign aid in India is typically allocated to specific areas such as AIDS control and tuberculosis programs, but any reduction can be offset through domestic resources. He added that for countries heavily dependent on foreign aid for vaccination, sanitation, infrastructure, women’s empowerment, education, and maternal and child health, the impact would be far more severe.
Dr. Jayadevan also noted that the decline in foreign aid is partly driven by shifting global priorities, including the United States reprioritizing domestic needs and exiting certain international health commitments. He emphasized that India is increasingly a supplier to the world rather than a recipient, citing the country’s role in providing medicines and vaccines globally. During the COVID-19 pandemic, India supplied nearly 300 million vaccine doses to more than 100 countries, many of them free of cost, under the Vaccine Maitri program.
According to Dr. Vinay Aggarwal, former National President of the Indian Medical Association and Chairman of Pushpanjali Healthcare, India is a self-reliant health power. He said the Lancet study serves as an important global warning, but India is better insulated from aid volatility than many other nations due to expanded domestic health financing, strengthened flagship programs, and one of the world’s largest public health delivery systems.
The Lancet Global Health study warns that a sharp drop in global aid could lead to 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030 across 93 low- and middle-income countries, including 5.4 million children under the age of five. With support from The Rockefeller Foundation and its public charity RF Catalytic Capital, the analysis highlights that sub-Saharan Africa is particularly at risk, along with countries in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Europe.
ISGlobal’s research shows that over the period from 2002 to 2021, ODA significantly reduced child mortality and deaths from HIV/AIDS, malaria, and nutritional deficiencies in these countries, which together account for 75 percent of the world’s population.
Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, described the findings as a warning of the profound moral cost of reduced global cooperation. He said decisions made today could determine whether the world retreats from commitments to feed the hungry, cure the sick, and protect the most vulnerable.
Davide Rasella, coordinator of the study and an ICREA Research Professor at ISGlobal and the Brazilian Institute of Collective Health, said development assistance has been among the most effective global health interventions over the past two decades. He warned that withdrawing support now could reverse hard-won progress and lead to millions of preventable deaths.
The study also notes that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development projects that ODA could decline by 10 to 18 percent between 2024 and 2025. ISGlobal examined 20 years of development data from 2002 to 2021 across 93 countries, home to 6.3 billion people, to assess the impact of aid and project future outcomes.
Deepali Khanna, Senior Vice President and Head of Asia at The Rockefeller Foundation, said Asia’s scale means that failures in health systems carry immense human costs. She stressed that without sustained and smarter development assistance, decades of progress could be reversed, though these outcomes are not inevitable if countries build resilient, self-reliant systems.
The countries analyzed in the study include 21 in Asia, 38 in sub-Saharan Africa, 12 in the Middle East and North Africa, 12 in Latin America, and 10 in Europe, including Ukraine.
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