New Delhi [India], October 19 (ANI): India’s retail inflation is projected to ease further in October 2025, driven by a high base effect, delayed seasonality in food prices, and the full impact of recent GST reforms, according to a report by Union Bank of India. The report expects only a gradual pickup in price pressures in the coming months.
“Our projection for October CPI is tracking below 0.50 per cent as on date. Food inflation too is expected to fall sharply in October and continue to remain in the negative zone during the coming winter months, with the impact of floods muted,” the report stated.
Inflation has moderated sharply, reaching an eight-year low, aided by declining food prices and GST rate rationalisation. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation forecast for FY26 has been revised down to 2.6 per cent from 3.1 per cent earlier, with inflation expected to remain below target for most of the year and rise modestly in Q4 due to base effects.
For September, CPI data showed a notable drop from the previous month, reflecting broad-based moderation in price growth. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) stood at -2.28 per cent, indicating that food prices have been in the negative zone since June 2025.
Rural areas recorded an inflation rate of 1.07 per cent, while urban inflation stood at 2.04 per cent. Food inflation was negative across both segments, at -2.17 per cent in rural areas and -2.47 per cent in urban regions, reflecting falling prices of vegetables and edible oils.
The government attributed the decline to “favourable base effects” and reductions in key food categories, including vegetables, oils and fats, fruits, cereals, pulses, eggs, and fuel & light. (ANI)
About The Author
