NEW DELHI, December 21 (ANI): India’s exports to the United States between May and November 2025 followed a distinct two-phase pattern, with a sharp decline until September followed by a partial recovery by November, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
India’s exports to the US fell 20.7 percent, from $8.8 billion in May to $7.0 billion in November. The decline was steeper earlier in the year, with exports dropping 37.7 percent from May to September, reaching a low of $5.5 billion. From that trough, exports partially rebounded by 27.3 percent between September and November, indicating a mid-year recovery.
GTRI reported that nearly 85 percent of November exports came from sectors that first declined and then rebounded. For instance, gems and jewelry exports plunged from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, then recovered to $406.2 million in November. Similar trends were observed across electronics (smartphones), machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts.
“India’s exports fell more sharply during the low-tariff phase and then recovered partially under the higher-tariff regime. This pattern is unusual,” GTRI said. Exports dropped between May and September even though tariffs were relatively low—10 percent in May, June, and July; 10 percent from August 1–6; 25 percent from August 7–27; and 50 percent from August 28–31. September, the first full month under the 50 percent tariff, marked the low point.
“Yet exports partly recovered between September and November, even though the 50 percent tariff remained in place throughout that period,” the GTRI report noted. “The drop between May and September likely reflected the shock and uncertainty created by impending tariff hikes, which led buyers to delay orders and run down inventories. Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting—absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products.”
In sectors such as electronics and machinery, supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season also supported shipments. “The rebound after September therefore reflects adjustment to a tougher tariff regime, not relief, and remains fragile, driven by short-term coping strategies rather than a lasting improvement,” the GTRI statement concluded.
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